Hype curves
I saw a post on Techcrunch about a hype curve for emerging technologies. I won’t reproduce the curve here as I am not sure about the legality of posting it. However, if you go over to techcrunch you can see the curve. I was very surprised to see the position of some of the technologies on the graph and the timeline to entering the mainstream.
For example wikis are behind SOA on the graph and both are 2-5 years from the mainstream. I would have thought that wikis would be ahead of SOA and that wikis had already reached the mainstream. Cloud computing is still in the technology trigger section of the curve and again is 2-5 years from the mainstream. I would have expected cloud computing to be closer to the mainstream.
Unfortunately the original Gartner report is hidden behind a toll barrier so I am not able to read the reasons for the positions of the technologies on the graph at present.
Where would repositories be placed on this curve? And what would be the timeframe for mainstream acceptance? Personally, I would place repositories in the trough of disillusionment and I would hope that they are 2-5 years from the mainstream.
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2 Responses to “Hype curves”
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Hope it is ok to comment on a colleagues post on our team blog. Just to say I agree with you and would also place repositories where you have, in the trough of disillusionment. I wonder where closely associated repository specifications could be placed, OAI-PMH - is it in the plateau of productivity, or has it fallen off the curve ? I’m not quite sure where to place it. OAI-ORE is easier, I think it is in the first phase, technology trigger.
For me the placing of cloud computing is not far off what I would think, I would place it in the peak of inflated expectations but some way off the trough of disillusionment. I think it depends on what type of use your referring to in terms of how close it is to the mainstream.
I think these hype curves are a useful tool but as you say we need to see the rationale to fully understand the placing.
In my personal hype curve microblogging is currently in the trough of disillusionment!
I wonder if the relation between wikis and SOA on this curve reflects that the curve is predominately about the uptake of these technologies in the industrial or commercial sector - I suspect relative positions would be swapped if this was only reflecting the world of education.
For me the odd man out on this graph is electronic paper - unless e-book readers like Kindle are included, I’ve not really heard of much progress in commercialising electronic paper.
Repositories …
I’d agree we’re somewhere in the trough of disillusionment. Although, as a community, we’re beginning to develop much more mature software for repositories, repository networks and services are only beginning to mature. I’m also not quite sure that we’ve really made the case about what repositories are good at. I regard Open Access as a good, and believe that repositories can support Open Access, but on its own I’m not convinced that Open Access is enough of a reason for institutional repositories to succeed [with the caveat that Open Access to data may require repositories]. I think for institutional repositories to reach the plateau of productivity, we’ve got to make more of how repositories can support other institutional processes and systems.
It’s fair to say that a lot of the recent repositories projects are getting into this territory - especially some of the Start Up & Enhancement projects but I’d agree that that means we’re at least 2-5 years away from any kind of mainstream adoption.